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In an S197 (4.6L) that isn't beat on, has oil changed every 5K miles with full synthetic oil, how long should the timing chain last before it should be replaced?
It's not the chain that is usually a problem, it's the chain guides. They are typically covered in Nylon (delrin) or made entirely out of nylon to reduce noise/chatter and keep the chains 'on track' when the nylon wears out, you get more noise and eventually the chain will jump a tooth...or two from slack.
If you change your oil regularly you should be fine for the life of the engine on the chain guides and chain.
When you decide to take the plunge I strongly recommend you look into the FRPP 4.6L 3V Camshaft Drive Kit. It has everything you need (including new phaser and bolts) and is available for much cheaper than buying the individual parts, just shop around for best price.